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Ss31 A Forest Optimization Model To Minimize The Risk Of Hurricane Damage Eastern Nicaragua

World Water Congress 2015 Edinburgh Scotland
Special session 31: Ict, Water And Climate Change
Author(s): Dr. Fernando J Mendoza Jara
Dr. Fernando J Mendoza Jara
National Agrarian University, Nicaragua
University of Texas at Dallas


  • Nicaragua is highly vulnerable to natural disasters and is a the third most highly impacted country in the world in regards to the passage of tropical storms. Hurricanes are part of the life in eastern Nicaragua.
  • North Atlantic has experienced a clear increase in the frequency of tropical storms and major hurricanes within the last three decades (Emanuel, K. 2005) .
Research question
  • Based on damages from historic hurricanes and modeled synthetic hurricanes, could we successfully propose a forest management plan in order to reduce the risks of impacts from future hurricanes?
Research objective
  • To develop a forest optimization model that produces a land management plan that minimizes certain risks posed by hurricanes.
  1. Generating synthetic future hurricanes
  2. Damage model calibration using existing data from Hurricane Felix (2007) and develop a damage prediction model
  3. Combine the damage prediction model with synthetic hurricanes to evaluate potential damages of future hurricanes.
  4. Built a forest optimization model to mitigate the negative impact of future hurricanes


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