IWRA World Water Congress 2008 Montpellier France
3. Climate Change and Disasters
Magna Soelma Beserra de Moura
Francisco de Assis Salviano de Sousa
Pesquisadora da Embrapa Semi-Árido em
Professor da Universidade Federal de Campina Grande.
Climatic change; hydrological cycle,
Semi-arid; Paraíba River-Brazil
AbstractClimatic change has great
implications for hydrological cycle and water resources planning. In order to assess this impact, a macro-scale and
semi-distributed monthly water balance model was proposed and developed to simulate and predict the hydrological
processes. GIS techniques were used as a tool to analyze topography, river networks, land-use, human activities,
vegetation and soil characteristics. The model parameters were linked to these basin characteristics by regression
and optimization methods.
The model development will also be used to obtain an appreciation of the process
controls of water balance in large heterogeneous catchments in semi-arid climates.
The semi-arid regions, such as
Taperoá and Caraúbas River basins in State Paraíba – Brazil the runoffs of these basins are small or even zero
during dry season (from Aug. to Jan) and are very sensitive to temperature increase and rainfall decrease. Results of
the study also indicated that runoff is more sensitive to variation in precipitation than to increase in temperature.
Climate change challenges existing water resources management practices by additional uncertainty. Integrated water
resources management will enhance the potential for adaptation to change.