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Household Water Demand Prediction Model with Changing Economic Effects by Using Input-Output Table Model

IWRA World Water Congress 2008 Montpellier France
5. Water Governance and Water Security
Author(s): Pongsak Suttinon
Nasu Seigo

Keyword(s): Household water demand, Cohort-component methods, Input-output table

AbstractIn this paper, household water demand model was developed in Lower Chao Phraya River Basin, Thailand. There are two main part in this model; (1) Population model, and (2) Water use unit model. Population model by age, sex, and 76 provinces was developed by using Cohort-component method. There are three scenarios in birth calculation; high, medium, and low. Cases of with and without effects from AIDS were applied to death calculation. Migration was calculated from impacts of changing economic structure from Input- Output (IO) table model and society effects. Water use unit analysis is calculated by two scenario; (1) Constant water use unit calculated by questionnaire, interview and field survey, (2) Water use unit varying with impacts from changing economic structure by declared Thai governmental strategy. The result in year 2025 shows that; (1) For case of medium total fertility rate with AIDS effect, migration, and constant water use unit per capita, household water demand will be 3.5 million cubic meter per day. (2) In case of varied water use unit, water demand will increase to 5.7 million cubic meter per day because of higher unit of water use from better daily life style in urban area.
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