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Climate Uncertainty,water availability and social behavior in Mexican Agriculture

Author(s): Modeling approach for decision taking
IWRA World Water Congress 2008 Montpellier France
3. Climate Change and Disasters
Author(s): Ignacio Sanchez Cohen
Gabriel Díaz Padilla
Jose L. Gonzalez Barrios
Luck Descroix

Keyword(s): water management, emigration, modeling.

AbstractHigh variability in both space and time has had huge impact on Mexico's agriculture forcing farmers to change economical activity. Planted area on the irrigation districts (where 73% of the GIP of agriculture is produced) has declined over time triggering the use of pumping water depleting aquifers at an estimated rate ranging from 0.5 to 2.5 meters per year. The first impact of this is the reduction of water quality below international standards. On the other hand, rainfall uncertainty in rain feed agriculture has forced farmers to emigrate to other states, other activity or to other country. This paper analyses the impact of rainfall uncertainty in the agricultural sector having economical and social decision variables as output to development plans in Mexico.
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