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Seasonal Sea Level Outlook With Exceedance Probability

Author(s): A scheme for reducing vulnerability to coastal hazards
IWRA World Water Congress 2008 Montpellier France
4. Development of Water Resources and Infrastructure
Author(s): Md. Rashed Chowdhury
Thomas A. Schroeder
Sarah Jones
P-S Chu
(1) Pacific ENSO Applications Center (PEAC), University of Hawaii at Manoa, 2525 Correa Road, HIG 350, Honolulu, Hawaii 96822, USA. rashed@hawaii.edu (2) School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, Joint Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research (JIMAR), University of Hawaii at Manoa, USA (3) Pacific ENSO Applications Center (PEAC), NOAA-National Weather Service, University of Hawaii at Manoa, USA. (4) School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology (SOEST), University of Hawaii at Manoa, USA.

Keyword(s): Sea level, sea-surface temperature (SST), climate hazards, generalized extreme value, vulnerability, and U.S.–Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI).

AbstractU.S-Affiliated Pacific Island (USAPI) communities are most vulnerable to coastal surges. Therefore, the occurrence of dangerously high or low water levels is an important public concern. The objective of this study is to provide an improved outlook on seasonal sea-level variability with exceedance probability levels, including tide predictions for the stations located within the vicinity of USAPI. Therefore, in addition to PEAC’s (Pacific ENSO Applications Center) current efforts to provide sea-surface temperatures (SSTs)-based operational forecasts for sea levels, this study further enhances the knowledge-base for annual and seasonal highest and lowest sea levels with tidal currents. This information are derived from the monthly sea-level data and is used to estimate the varying likelihood of extreme high or low sea levels by seasonal and annual scale. For prediction of tides, NOAA-COOPS (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration-Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services) data sources are explored. The results are summarized by relative to the tidal datums for each station. This information has been found to be useful for identifying, in real time, when a rare event threshold has been crossed in the USAPI. The PEAC has already, in addition to their current efforts, started dissemination tidal predictions with the real-time highest and lowest sea level likelihood of extremes to the island communities through newsletter entitled ‘Pacific ENSO Update’ (web version is also available at: http://www.soest.hawaii.edu/MET/Enso/peu/update.html). This information has greatly expanded the capability in coastal hazard assessment, navigational safety, fishing, and ecosystem management in the USAPI.
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