Programme  OS4c Modelling and information management  abstract 211

Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on Runoff decrease in Haihe Catchment, Northern China

Author(s): Yonghui Yang, Lv Yungang, Fanjing, Han Shumin

Keyword(s): Runoff decrease, water shortage, climate change, land use change, model simulation

Article: abs211_article.doc
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Session: OS4c Modelling and information management
AbstractIn recent years, water resources in Haihe river basin has sharply decreased.

The decrease of runoff in mountain areas is one of the most important causes. Climate change and human activities

such as land use change, human and domestic water use are considered as the main cause of runoff decrease. Two

typical mountainous catchments in Haihe river basin were selected as case study areas. HSPF and SWAT models

were employed to simulate the runoff in this area. Good agreement between simulated and observed values through

calibration and verification indicated the efficiency of the model in 1960s and early 1970s. Long-term stream flows

was generated by the hydrological model to obtain the quantity of decrease in runoff driven by climate change.

Moreover, runoff under dry and wet years was simulated and compared to demonstrate the dominating factors of

runoff decrease. The results showed that runoff decrease from middle of 1970s was not heavily driven by climate

change. The rates of impacts of climate change and human activities are 34% and 66% respectively. Effect from land

use and human water use should be further clarified.

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