Programme OS4c Modelling and information
Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on Runoff decrease in
Haihe Catchment, Northern China
Author(s): Yonghui Yang, Lv Yungang, Fanjing, Han Shumin
Keyword(s): Runoff decrease, water shortage, climate change, land use
change, model simulation
Session: OS4c Modelling and information
In recent years, water resources in Haihe river basin has sharply decreased.
The decrease of runoff in mountain areas is one of the most important causes. Climate change and human activities
such as land use change, human and domestic water use are considered as the main cause of runoff decrease. Two
typical mountainous catchments in Haihe river basin were selected as case study areas. HSPF and SWAT models
were employed to simulate the runoff in this area. Good agreement between simulated and observed values through
calibration and verification indicated the efficiency of the model in 1960s and early 1970s. Long-term stream flows
was generated by the hydrological model to obtain the quantity of decrease in runoff driven by climate change.
Moreover, runoff under dry and wet years was simulated and compared to demonstrate the dominating factors of
runoff decrease. The results showed that runoff decrease from middle of 1970s was not heavily driven by climate
change. The rates of impacts of climate change and human activities are 34% and 66% respectively. Effect from land
use and human water use should be further clarified.