Programme  OS3c Climate change: detecting trends, projecting future  abstract 159

Climate Uncertainty,water availability and social behavior in Mexican Agriculture

Author(s): Modeling approach for decision taking
Author(s): Ignacio Sanchez Cohen, Gabriel Díaz Padilla, Jose L. Gonzalez Barrios, Luck Descroix

Keyword(s): water management, emigration, modeling.

Article: abs159_article.pdf
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Session: OS3c Climate change: detecting trends, projecting future
AbstractHigh variability in both space and time has had huge impact on Mexico's agriculture forcing farmers to change

economical activity. Planted area on the irrigation districts (where 73% of the GIP of agriculture is produced) has

declined over time triggering the use of pumping water depleting aquifers at an estimated rate ranging from 0.5 to 2.5

meters per year. The first impact of this is the reduction of water quality below international standards. On the other

hand, rainfall uncertainty in rain feed agriculture has forced farmers to emigrate to other states, other activity or to

other country. This paper analyses the impact of rainfall uncertainty in the agricultural sector having economical and

social decision variables as output to development plans in Mexico.

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