Programme  OS4h Risk management 3  abstract 147

Seasonal Sea Level Outlook With Exceedance Probability

Author(s): A scheme for reducing vulnerability to coastal hazards
Author(s): Md. Rashed Chowdhury(1), Thomas A. Schroeder(2), Sarah Jones(3), P-S Chu(4)
(1) Pacific ENSO Applications Center (PEAC), University of Hawaii at Manoa, 2525 Correa Road, HIG 350, Honolulu, Hawaii 96822, USA. (2) School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, Joint Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research (JIMAR), University of Hawaii at Manoa, USA (3) Pacific ENSO Applications Center (PEAC), NOAA-National Weather Service, University of Hawaii at Manoa, USA. (4) School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology (SOEST), University of Hawaii at Manoa, USA.

Keyword(s): Sea level, sea-surface temperature (SST), climate hazards, generalized extreme value, vulnerability, and U.S.–Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI).

Article: abs147_article.pdf
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Session: OS4h Risk management 3
AbstractU.S-Affiliated Pacific Island (USAPI) communities are most vulnerable to coastal surges. Therefore, the occurrence

of dangerously high or low water levels is an important public concern. The objective of this study is to provide an

improved outlook on seasonal sea-level variability with exceedance probability levels, including tide predictions for

the stations located within the vicinity of USAPI. Therefore, in addition to PEAC’s (Pacific ENSO Applications

Center) current efforts to provide sea-surface temperatures (SSTs)-based operational forecasts for sea levels, this

study further enhances the knowledge-base for annual and seasonal highest and lowest sea levels with tidal currents.

This information are derived from the monthly sea-level data and is used to estimate the varying likelihood of extreme

high or low sea levels by seasonal and annual scale. For prediction of tides, NOAA-COOPS (National Oceanic and

Atmospheric Administration-Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services) data sources are

explored. The results are summarized by relative to the tidal datums for each station. This information has been found

to be useful for identifying, in real time, when a rare event threshold has been crossed in the USAPI.

has already, in addition to their current efforts, started dissemination tidal predictions with the real-time highest and

lowest sea level likelihood of extremes to the island communities through newsletter entitled ‘Pacific ENSO Update’

(web version is also available at: This information has

greatly expanded the capability in coastal hazard assessment, navigational safety, fishing, and ecosystem management

in the USAPI.

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